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Are We There Yet? Evaluating the Transition to EVs

Christian Kaps, Michael W. Toffel, and Ulrich Niklas

Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 26-062 (2026)

[SSRN]

Abstract

Transitioning from internal combustion vehicles (ICEs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is essential for achieving many nations' climate goals. Although BEV adoption is rising, it varies substantially across regions and remains low in many countries despite significant investment from automakers and governments. Prior research has emphasized behavioral impediments to adoption, like range anxiety, and explored infrastructure design to support BEVs, often relying on surveys or niche settings. Using telemetry data from 300,000 U.S. vehicles, we show that, contrary to survey-based evidence, modern BEVs are driven as frequently and far as ICEs, with only modest differences in long-distance travel. Refueling behavior further challenges common assumptions about range anxiety: when away from home, BEV and ICE users are equally likely to refuel at a given remaining range. Near home, however, BEV users—including those without home chargers—refuel more often than ICE users even when the remaining range is high, underscoring the critical role of home-proximate charging access. These insights can inform BEV service design and charging infrastructure policy.